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The 2024 presidential election is just around the corner, and the Troy Rotary Club had the opportunity to hear an unbiased opinion on the election. 

Dr. Adam Rutkowski, an assistant professor of political science at Troy University, said current presidential polling indicates this may be one of the closest elections in the nation’s history. But, before going into details, Rutkowski gave a brief recap of how Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris became the nominees. 

“I want to talk about the 2024 election, and given the very contentious and highly polarized nature of American politics,some might say I’m in a rather unenviable position,” Rutkowski said. “I want to give you some things to survive the election season. And the word ‘survive’ is intentional. I’m sure I speak for most of us when I say we feel like we are in survival mode. When it comes to American politics, no matter what side of the aisle you consider yourself to be a part of, each day you are inundated with political phone calls, political text messages, every time you go to your mailbox you see a nice, thick stack of mailers that usually go right in the trash. So, we are in the thick of it. I’m not trying to change anyone’s mind, I’m just trying to give some information.”

Rutkowski said Trump was the 45th president and was running for election to a split term after losing to President Joe Biden in 2020. Harris, he said, was the second woman and first African-American woman to run for president. Rutkowski said going back to the primary season, Trump was the presumed nominee for the 2024 Republican ticket. Rutkowski said Trump didn’t participate in the presidential debates because he believed he would be the nominee. Trump did go on to receive the nomination, as we all know, Rutkowski said. 

Harris, Rutkowski said, had the more interesting path to becoming the Democratic nominee. Rutkowski said during the primary season, President Joe Biden was the presumptive nominee, but concerns over his age and cognitive health as well as a disastrous debate with Trump, which was the “nail in the political coffin of Joe Biden,” ended Biden’s campaign for a second term.

Rutkowski went on to say after Biden’s withdrawal from the election, there was a strong push from high level Democrats to make Harris the nominee. Rutkowski said even though Harris received no votes in the primary election, the Democratic convention had not happened at the time. He said federal law states that if a candidate drops out before the convention, the delegates to the convention are not bound to the person they voted for. So, that’s how the Democrats nominated Harris, Rutkowski said. He said there were a lot of complaints Harris’ nomination was anti-democratic and against the law. “Anti-democratic, I’ll give you that, but against the law, no,” Rutkowski said. “Federal law explicitly allows that to happen.” 

Rutkowski said early on, Harris skyrocketed in the polls, but the momentum didn’t last. 

Rutkowski said most reliable polling shows Trump and Harris in a dead heat right now. 

He said because polling, at the moment, shows the election could go either way, swing states are critically important to both sides. 

Rutkowski said this was where the electoral college came into play. Rutkowski said when people go vote for president, they aren’t actually voting for the president, but for which slate of electors will cast their vote in the electoral college. He said because of the way the population is distributed across the U.S., it is possible for a president to win the electoral college, but not win the popular vote. 

Rutkowski said to pay particular attention to Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and Arizona. Those states are the most likely to go either way in the 2024 election. 

“There are some states that matter more than others and that’s why some people get frustrated with the electoral college,” Rutkowski said. 

Rutkowski said Alabama is historically a red state and Trump will easily win the state’s electoral college delegates in the 2024 election. However, Rutkowski said just because the election in Alabama will swing to the Republican side of the aisle doesn’t mean people shouldn’t exercise their right to vote. 

“Remember that no matter where you live, go vote,” Rutkowski said. “I always tell my students too many people have fought and died, whether your vote counts more here or less here than it does somewhere else, go vote. Too many people have fought and died for the right to do so and that should be respected.”