Saturday’s game between the Troy Trojans (10-5, 3-1 Sun Belt) and Arkansas State Red Wolves (11-5, 2-2 Sun Belt) going head to head at Trojan Arena has a projected final score of 72-71 (based on our computer prediction) in favor of Troy, so expect a tight matchup. The game will tip off at 4:33 PM ET on January 11.

According to our computer prediction, Troy projects to cover the 1.5-point spread in its matchup against Arkansas State. The over/under is currently listed at 143.5, and the two teams are projected to go under that total.

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Game Info & Odds

• Date: Saturday, January 11, 2025
• Time: 4:33 PM ET
• TV: ESPN+
• Live stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Troy, Alabama
• Venue: Trojan Arena
• Line: Troy -1.5
• Point total: 143.5
• Moneyline (to win): Troy -128, Arkansas State +104

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Troy vs. Arkansas State Score Prediction

• Prediction:
  Troy 72, Arkansas State 71

Spread & Total Prediction for Troy vs. Arkansas State

• Pick ATS: Troy (-1.5)
• Pick OU: Under (143.5)

Troy has gone 8-5-0 against the spread, while Arkansas State’s ATS record this season is 6-9-0. A total of six out of the Trojans’ games this season have hit the over, and seven of the Red Wolves’ games have gone over. The teams average 151.9 points per game, 8.4 more points than this matchup’s total. Troy is 6-4 against the spread and 6-4 overall in its last 10 contests, while Arkansas State has gone 4-6 against the spread and 6-4 overall.

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Troy Performance Insights

• The Trojans’ +116 scoring differential (outscoring opponents by 7.8 points per game) is a result of scoring 73.7 points per game (229th in college basketball) while giving up 65.9 per contest (51st in college basketball).
• The 34.2 rebounds per game Troy averages rank 101st in college basketball, and are 6.1 more than the 28.1 its opponents record per contest.
• Troy makes 6.7 three-pointers per game (281st in college basketball), while its opponents have made 6.6 on average.
• The Trojans’ 93.1 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 245th in college basketball, and the 83.4 points they allow per 100 possessions rank 30th in college basketball.
• Troy has committed 14.7 turnovers per game (349th in college basketball play) while forcing 13.9 (49th in college basketball).

Arkansas State Performance Insights

• The Red Wolves outscore opponents by 7.4 points per game (posting 78.2 points per game, 109th in college basketball, and conceding 70.8 per outing, 169th in college basketball) and have a +119 scoring differential.
• Arkansas State ranks 17th in the country at 37.4 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the 36.4 its opponents average.
• Arkansas State connects on 9.4 three-pointers per game (55th in college basketball) while shooting 31.5% from deep (292nd in college basketball). It is making 2.6 more threes than its opponents, who drain 6.8 per game at 31.1%.
• Arkansas State wins the turnover battle by 2.0 per game, committing 10.6 (87th in college basketball) while its opponents average 12.6.

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